Sub-State playoff picks

We're down to just four teams left in each classification and here’s our predictions for the winners of this week’s Sub-State playoff games with notes. Asterisks indicate the games we believe will be the closest. We also included an updated top five for each classification.

Class 6A

1. Derby
2. Manhattan
3. Blue Valley West
4. Gardner Edgerton
5. Wichita Northwest

East: *Blue Valley West over Gardner Edgerton

This is a battle pitting two teams who entered the season with significant question marks due to the graduation of loaded 2024 classes and all they’ve done is survive the onslaught of brutal schedules and make it to the semifinals with just one loss each, both coming to top two teams in 5A. This feels like an epic matchup featuring two of the best QBs in the state in West’s Tate Nagy and GE’s Bravin Powell and it’s likely to come down to the very end.

West: *Derby over Manhattan

Derby’s roster, loaded with Power 4 talent, has done exactly what was expected this season in dominating all comers, scoring at least 36 points in every game–with 49 or more in eight of them–and allowing more than seven points just twice, that in the last two games against Junction City (42-14) and Wichita East (63-28). Former Maize QB Drew Kemp has been simply spectacular in just one season at Derby (87-115/1,426/24 TDs/1 INT/62 car./517/10 TDs) and the offensive weapons are too numerous to name. Carter Aslin and the Indians have had the antidote to Derby’s powerful venom the last couple of seasons, but it just feels like Derby is too good for the Tribe to pull off the shocker this season.

Class 5A

1. St. Thomas Aquinas
2. Mill Valley
3. St. James Academy
4. Eisenhower
5. Hays

East: *St. Thomas Aquinas over St. James Academy

Aquinas ended Mill Valley’s reign atop 5A in a game for the ages last week and now the Saints have to recover from that emotional high to overcome a Thunder team whose 6-5 record–that included a 3-5 start to the season–isn’t quite what it seems.

West: *Eisenhower over Hays

First, credit to Hays High, looking for their first state championship berth in their long school history. The one-point loss to Liberal late in the regular season gave us pause and explains our reasoning for picking against them last week against Hutch, but the Indians have proven their Week 2 toe-to-toe battle with Manhattan was no fluke and their brutal schedule has prepped them for their deep postseason run. Now, all that said, we find it a bridge too far to bet against uber-efficient QB Derek Morgan and DI receiver Carter Pabst and the returning semifinalist Eisenhower Tigers, BUT, this should be another dandy playoff game on the west side of the bracket.

Class 4A

1. Andover Central
2. Bishop Miege
3. Buhler
4. Louisburg
5. Chanute

East: Bishop Miege over Tonganoxie

Miege flexed their muscle a bit against a quality Chanute team last week and Tongie represents a very similar opponent.

West: Andover Central over Buhler

Buhler has put together another fantastic season under legendary coach Steve Buhler, but we’re going to “dance with the girl we brung” (so to speak) and stick with our preseason prognostication that Andover Central will return as the West rep in the title game and deliver a 4A championship to a public school for the first time in 11 seasons.

Class 3A

1. Andale
2. Hayden
3. Wellsville
4. Cheney
5. Collegiate

East: *Hayden over Wellsville

Wellsville is playing so well, and coach Mike Berg has done an incredible job in replacing key graduated skill position players this season and adapting his offense to his personnel, but we’re going to go with Hayden Catholic to make a return trip to the 3A title game.

West: Andale over Holcomb

We love a good underdog story, even if that underdog is a team with just two losses in Holcomb, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where an Andale team that has pummeled everyone since a Week 2 scare from Wellington, including a 52-14 win over a Cheney team who may be the second best in the classification in last week’s quarterfinal, stumbles on their way to their seventh title game appearance in the last eight seasons. BUT, maybe the Longhorns can reproduce the magic that saw them knock off the Indians in the semifinals on their way to a 4A-II title in 2015, when current head coach Trey Teeter was their QB and his dad Kent was their coach.

Class 2A

1. Southeast of Saline
2. Nemaha Central
3. Osage City
4. Council Grove
5. Beloit

East: *Nemaha Central over Council Grove

The way Council Grove has played the last couple of weeks there’s nothing to make one think the Braves can’t hang with Nemaha Central, but there’s also nothing to make one believe that the Thunder won’t find themselves in position to compete for a third straight 2A crown.

West: *Southeast of Saline over Beloit

Beloit’s massive and mobile offensive and defensive front are going to make this closer than the first matchup these two teams played earlier this season, but the orange and black Trojans are going to need to make a few plays in the secondary against the purple and gray Trojans' connection of Gannon Jacobson to Tucker Thaxton to pull the upset.

Class 1A

1. Conway Springs
2. Rossville
3. Jackson Heights
4. Centralia
5. Valley Heights

East: *Rossville over Centralia

Two weeks ago we would’ve installed Rossville as a two touchdown favorite, now, we’re not so sure. Centralia’s dominance of Colgan last week was impressive–in spite of the talent Colgan lost to graduation in the spring–and Rossville must recover from the high of one of the most incredible comebacks ever, no doubt an emotional rollercoaster ride.

West: Conway Springs over Valley Heights

The Mustangs are to be applauded for besting Medicine Lodge in a rematch of last year's quarterfinals and earning a trip to the semifinals, especially given the graduation of standout Carson Spoonts, but this week Valley will get their stiffest test of the postseason in what is possibly a better Conway Springs team than the one that won 1A a season ago.

8-Man I

1. Hoxie
2. South Central
3. Wichita County
4. Clifton-Clyde
5. Rawlins County

East: *Clifton-Clyde over Central Plains

Clifton-Clyde has looked impressive in the postseason and Central Plains has shown an ability to win the close game, but Eagle quarterback Jack Skocny is a special player who presents challenges for defenses across DI.

West: *Hoxie over South Central

South Central has put together a couple of excellent seasons and their talented group of seniors is likely to give the Indians a challenge for the second straight week, but we think the Division I title is Hoxie’s to lose.

8-Man II

1. Axtell
2. Victoria
3. Frankfort
4. Burlingame
5. Hanover

East: Axtell over Frankfort

Is it really necessary to explain why we’d pick the Eagles as heavy favorites? Axtell is simply a historically dominant team, possibly the best in 8-Man history.

West: Victoria over Dighton

Dighton has built an incredible program that does more with less, but Victoria’s size and physicality should be the difference in this one.

6-Man

1. Cunningham
2. Weskan
3. Golden Plains
4. South Barber
5. Ingalls

East: Cunningham over Tescott

Tescott coach Daymon Walker has done a masterful job ushering Tescott into the 6-Man era over the past three seasons, but the Wildcats have been their nemesis, and in all fairness, most others teams nemesis as well.

West: *Weskan over Golden Plains

Golden Plains is going to give the Coyotes all they want in this matchup, but Weskan is likely to extend their first season back in the KSHSAA playoff bracket for another week.