KPG State Championship picks and rankings update

After a fantastic slate of contests Friday and Saturday, the 2024 KSHSAA championship games are in the books. Here's a look at what I got right - and wrong - with my picks earlier this week. The double asterisk to the right of each result means my winning pick was correct, and the ≈ symbol means I got it wrong. I also included my updated final Top 5 in each classification as well as a few notes on each title game.

Class 6A

1. Gardner Edgerton
2. Manhattan
3. Derby
4. Blue Valley West
5. Wichita Northwest

Gardner Edgerton over Manhattan 36-33**

Congratulations to Jesse Owen and the Gardner Edgerton Trailblazers on their second consecutive state championship and their third straight title game appearance. Owen is our pick for 6A Coach of the Year while QB Bravin Powell is certainly a 6A POY finalist. I don't see any need for revisions to our final Top 5 here. The two best teams certainly played in the championship game and gave us another epic contest in a stretch of three straight INCREDIBLE 6A finals.

Class 5A

1. St. Thomas Aquinas
2. Mill Valley
3. St. James Academy
4. Hays
5. Eisenhower

Aquinas over Hays 35-13**

Hays High earned the first state championship game berth in school history but the Eastern Kansas League champion showed the strength of the KC Metro with a 22 point win over the Indians following one- and seven-point wins against Mill Valley and St. James Academy the two weeks prior. Aquinas coach Randy Dreiling won his record-breaking 10th state championship as a head coach after winning the 4A title last November and a 5A title this fall. Coach Tony Crough deserves serious consideration for 5A Coach of the Year honors for taking a team that was 4-4 heading into the playoffs all the way to the championship game and beating their highly regarded rival, Great Bend 19-14 in Regionals, avenging their 21-0 loss in mid-October. Crough is building a program that should be a perennial winner going forward.

Class 4A

1. Andover Central
2. Bishop Miege
3. Louisburg
4. Chanute
5. Buhler

Andover Central over Bishop Miege 49-42**

Went wire-to-wire on this prediction. There was just something about the depth and experience of the Jaguars heading into the season coupled with coach Derek Tuttle's incredible success in his first five seasons leading Andover Central that made it feel like a season of destiny for the black and gold. That destiny was fulfilled in a 49-42 shootout on Saturday A game that saw Maddox Archibald rush for more than 300 yards behind his experienced and talented offensive line.

Class 3A

1. Andale
2. Hayden
3. Cheney
4. Collegiate
5. Wellsville

Andale over Hayden 36-19**

Andale returned to its rightful place at the top of Class 3A, but not without Bill Arnold's Hayden squad putting up a gritty performance and proving they are certainly the second best team in the classification. The Wildcats actually led 19-12 late into the third quarter before the Indians were able to pull away and deliver their fifth state title in six seasons for coach Dylan Schmidt, who has now lost just four total games in his eight seasons as head coach at Andale. Read that again, Schmidt’s Andale teams have lost just FOUR games in eight seasons.

Class 2A

1. Southeast of Saline
2. Nemaha Central
3. Beloit
4. Osage City
5. Council Grove

Southeast of Saline over Nemaha Central 36-28 (≈ Picked the Thunder to win a close one and knocked SES out of the top spot in our rankings heading into the contest.)

I hated to pick against coach Gebhardt and am so happy for he and his family for rallying to beat Nemaha Central 36-28. You will find no better people in the Kansas high school football community than the Gebhardts. On the other sideline, Michael Glatczak continues to do an exceptional job leading the Thunder and is also part of one of the great football families in Kansas. With Carter Hajek back next year for the Thunder and Gannon Jacobson and Grady Gebhardt back next year for Southeast of Saline this is a matchup we might see again next November. If we were to award a Clutch Player of the Year, Gannon Jacobson would win it. The Trojan’s junior QB made critical plays in last second must-have situations for two weeks in a row.

Class 1A

1. Conway Springs
2. Centralia
3. Valley Heights
4. Rossville
5. Jackson Heights

Conway Springs over Centralia 41-6**

Conway Springs rolled to a second consecutive 1A title and added to their storied tradition in a 41-6 manhandling of the Panthers. This does lead to a little shakeup in our final poll as Valley Heights' narrow early season loss to Centralia coupled with their competitive performance early against Conway Springs in their semifinal matchup sees them jump Rossville and Jackson Heights, though two through five is a virtual tie.

8-Man I

1. Hoxie
2. Wichita County
3. South Central
4. Rawlins County
5. Central Plains

Hoxie over Central Plains 46-0**

Central Plains showed incredible grit in winning playoff games by two, six, six and three points to make the final, but Hoxie flexed its muscle in the championship game shutting out the Oilers and finishing the game early in the third quarter by mercy rule. As a result, we’ll leave our final Top 5 alone as the West side of the bracket was clearly deeper this season.

8-Man II

1. Axtell
2. Frankfort
3. Burlingame
4. Hanover
5. Victoria

Axtell over Victoria 50-0**

Axtell did what they do and continued their record run of four straight championships in dominant fashion hammering previously unbeaten Victoria 50-0. In the process the Eagles showed the East side of the bracket was the deeper group, something we previously indicated in our rankings most of the season and our rankings are re-shuffled to indicate as such. Now, don’t get me wrong, Victoria and their physical style of play would certainly compete against Hanover and Burlingame if given the chance, but it really doesn’t matter because an Eagle program with an argument as the best in the history of 8-Man football dispatched all comers for the fourth straight year.

6-Man

1. Weskan
2. Cunningham
3. Golden Plains
4. South Barber
5. Ingalls

Weskan over Cunningham 49-48 (≈Picked Cunningham but Weskan pulled off the upset in one of the most exciting games of the postseason.)

According to Kpreps.com’s Twitter/X coverage of the game, Weskan built a 35-14 lead over Cunningham at halftime and led 43-20 late in the third quarter before Cunningham stormed back to take the 48-43 lead with just over three minutes left in the fourth. Weskan scored with less than two minutes to go to take the 49-48 lead and the defense bowed up for a 4th down stop with a minute left to secure the win. The Coyotes won the championship in their first season back in KSHSAA play.

Congratulations to all the champions. Now onto winter sports.

Here's our original picks article from the beginning of state championship week:

So let’s start with an explanation. The weekly football rankings and predictions are compiled mostly by me, Kansas Pregame publisher John Baetz. I consult with a lot of coaches, media members, and other passionate football enthusiasts who watch a lot of football and then I try to develop a top five for each class and take a guess at who is going to win in any given week come playoff time.

I don’t always write this section in first person like this because I don’t ultimately think of the rankings and predictions as exclusively mine, but this week I want to emphasize that these picks are no one’s but mine.

This stems in part from the fact that I had a couple people pretty upset with my rankings last week, and I get it, people are passionate about their team, and really the discussion was quite respectful, so I really have no complaints.

But, I want people to remember a few things about these rankings and predictions: 1. They have zero impact on any one team’s postseason seeding or their ability to advance in the playoffs; 2. Kansas Pregame ain’t handing out no trophies, only KSHSAA can do that for the teams that win; 3. And finally, I’m not afraid to admit when I’m wrong, and last week I was wrong about quite a bit.

And this is the part where I eat crow, here’s a few things I was quite wrong about last week:

Beloit has come such a long way this season and earned my respect against Southeast of Saline in one of the most exciting games I’ve had the privilege of watching in nearly four decades of playing, coaching or covering high school or college football in Kansas. Beloit’s offensive and defensive fronts are fantastic, really some of the best in all classes. Running back Joel Rexroat is a stud and QB Jackson Weston made a few big plays in the passing game at just the right time, but Gannon Jacobson is a clutch QB with swagger who shines in the biggest moments and Grady Gebhardt is a special all-around player and difference maker for the purple Trojans. Southeast made just a couple more plays in the ultimate high pressure situation to deliver an incredible finish. While Beloit was 0-2 against Southeast this season if the two versions of the team that played Friday night were to play 10 times I’d bet the end result would be five wins for each.

I’ve bet against Gardner Edgerton and Manhattan finding their way to the state title game all season and now they’re the final two teams standing in 6A. Jesse Owen and Joe Schartz have done exceptional coaching jobs with teams both hit hard by graduation, and both are anchored by incredibly gifted senior dual-threat quarterbacks in GE’s Bravin Powell and Manhattan’s Carter Aslin.

In another impressive coaching job Roger Holthaus has his Centralia Panthers playing their best ball of the season when it matters the most, knocking off a Rossville team I felt confident was going to make it to the title game in their first season in 1A. The Panthers wins over Colgan and Rossville the past two weeks are among the most impressive in Class 1A all season.

And in yet another incredible coaching job, Hays High is going to their first state title game ever, beating Eisenhower with a team hampered by injuries, including the loss of two different QBs during the semifinal win. Candidly, I thought Hays High was cooked after the loss to Liberal. Granted, coach Bryan Luetters has done an incredible job revitalizing that program in his three seasons, but after graduating the best class of football players in at least the last 15 seasons a loss to Liberal signaled Hays was a team not ready to make a deep postseason run. But Tony Crough’s team knocked off a very talented Great Bend team in a rematch of one of the state’s most heated rivalries, dominated a highly regarded Hutch Salthawk team and knocked off an Eisenhower team with arguably the best quarterback/receiver combo in 5A.

But all that said, that’s why they play ‘em. Us prognosticators gonna to continue to prognosticate, so without further ado, here’s my rankings and prognostications for the final week of the 2024 football season.

Class 6A

1. Gardner Edgerton
2. Manhattan
3. Derby
4. Blue Valley West
5. Wichita Northwest

State Pick: Gardner Edgerton over Manhattan

I’d like to give you a bunch of incredibly educated reasons about why I’m picking the Blazers, but if the past is any indication this is going to be another all-time great contest and probably comes down to whoever has the ball last.

Class 5A

1. St. Thomas Aquinas
2. Mill Valley
3. St. James Academy
4. Hays
5. Eisenhower

State Pick: Aquinas over Hays

In an intriguing matchup that sees Randy Dreiling bring his Saints to face a team from his home county–Dreiling is a native of the Ellis County community of Victoria–we’ll find out if the generally held belief that teams from the EKL are better than much of the rest of the state holds true. I hate to pick against the Indians because they are an incredible story, but recent history tells us Aquinas should be installed as a favorite. The Indians are the first Western Athletic Conference team to play in a state championship game since Great Bend in 2006, while the Saints regularly end their seasons in the final few rounds of the playoffs, including winning last season’s 4A championship.

Class 4A

1. Andover Central
2. Bishop Miege
3. Louisburg
4. Chanute
5. Buhler

State Pick: Andover Central over Bishop Miege

We’ve felt Central was going to win this classification all season long, and nothing that’s happened in the postseason has changed that, but certainly the Jags are well aware of the formidable foe they face in the perennially powerful Stags.

Class 3A

1. Andale
2. Hayden
3. Cheney
4. Collegiate
5. Wellsville

State Pick: Andale over Hayden

It’s hard to imagine anyone not seeing Andale as a favorite in this one. Their dominance this season matches that of Andale teams that won 57 games and four state titles in a row prior to falling to Cheney in district play–and again in the playoffs–a season ago. Even so, Hayden’s dominance of Wellsville signaled a team ready to challenge that narrative in their second straight title game appearance.

Class 2A

1. Nemaha Central
2. Southeast of Saline
3. Beloit
4. Osage City
5. Council Grove

State Pick: Nemaha Central over Southeast of Saline

I hate picking this one. I was an assistant coach to Mitch Gebhardt 25 years ago in Lincoln and I’m thrilled he has led his team to the title game, but my gut tells me the Thunder’s recent championship experience and late season surge is going to deliver a victory over a team coming off such an emotional victory. I expect a great game that will come down to the wire, but I’m picking the Thunder.

Class 1A

1. Conway Springs
2. Centralia
3. Rossville
4. Jackson Heights
5. Valley Heights

State Pick: Conway Springs over Centralia

In a matchup of two long-time Single Wing teams these two squads are going to line up and punch each other in the mouth for 48 minutes, Conway Springs might just have a few more uppercuts in their corner and likely deliver a second straight 1A crown.

8-Man I

1. Hoxie
2. Wichita County
3. South Central
4. Rawlins County
5. Central Plains

State Pick: Hoxie over Central Plains

What a thrilling victory over Clifton-Clyde last week for Central Plains, and a fantastic season for the Oilers in their first season under JD Johnson, but we believe the west side of this bracket is substantially better than the east until the Oilers prove us otherwise. Hoxie’s Duncan Bell and Sam Watkins are all-time great 8-Man football players, and their supporting cast is not too shabby either.

8-Man II

1. Axtell
2. Victoria
3. Frankfort
4. Burlingame
5. Hanover

State Pick: Axtell over Victoria

Historically dominant Axtell could get their stiffest test of the season from Victoria, but no one is going to pick against them, and we’re not either.

6-Man

1. Cunningham
2. Weskan
3. Golden Plains
4. South Barber
5. Ingalls

State Pick: Cunningham over Weskan

Weskan has put together a fantastic season in their first year in KSHSAA 6-Man play, but Cunningham’s loaded senior class is too much to bet against.